New Report Analyzes Ohio Redistricting Scenarios Ahead of 2026 Elections
Business leaders highlight why fair maps are essential to restoring trust and ensuring Ohio’s competitiveness.
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A new report from the Electoral Innovation Lab warns that Ohio’s upcoming congressional redistricting could displace millions of voters, destabilize incumbents, and further erode trust in democracy unless lawmakers adopt fairer maps.
The nonpartisan report, Ohio Mid-Decade Redistricting: A Nonpartisan Policy Analysis, commissioned by the Leadership Now Project, a national organization of centrist business leaders, analyzes the state’s redistricting process and models three scenarios lawmakers could pursue before the 2026 midterms: maintaining the current map, enacting an aggressive partisan gerrymander, or adopting a fair map that better reflects Ohio’s electorate.
Leadership Now Project is releasing the report in partnership with the Electoral Innovation Lab to provide Ohioans—from policymakers to business leaders to voters—with a clear, data-driven assessment of the choices ahead.
Key findings from the report include:
An aggressive gerrymander could move nearly one in three Ohioans (30%, ~3.5 million people) into new districts, particularly disrupting Cincinnati, Toledo, and Akron. Such a map could create an 11 Republican, 2 Democratic, and 2 competitive seat split, but past cycles show it could backfire: in 2018, it would have produced an 8–7 Democratic majority.
A less aggressive map would displace 8% of voters, focusing on northern Ohio, but still destabilize nearby districts.
A fair map would produce 8 Republican-leaning, 3 Democratic, and 4 competitive seats, mirroring Ohio’s actual statewide partisan balance (56% R / 44% D) while respecting county and community boundaries.
Maintaining the current map would continue Ohio’s 10–5 partisan split, despite the state’s near-even balance, leaving most districts uncompetitive.
“This fact-based report shows the real costs of gerrymandering—not only for democracy but for stability in Ohio,” said Richard Stoff, Senior Advisor to the Leadership Now Project and founding and former president of the Ohio Business Roundtable. “An aggressive gerrymander could displace millions of Ohioans, leaving them with representatives they never voted for and incumbents scrambling to campaign in communities they’ve never served. That’s disruption, not democracy.
Daniella Ballou-Aares, CEO of the Leadership Now Project, emphasized the economic stakes, “Trust is the foundation of both democracy and markets. Gerrymandering erodes that trust and tells Ohioans their voices don’t matter. The result is talent leaving the state and businesses facing greater uncertainty. Fair maps restore accountability—and strengthen Ohio’s competitiveness.”
Jim Ratner, Director of Cleveland-based Max Collaborative, former Forest City Realty Chairman, and member of the Leadership Now Project, added, “For decades, both parties have tilted the rules to protect their power. This report makes clear that it doesn’t have to be this way. A fair map would reflect the will of the people, not politicians, and ensure Ohio remains a place where democracy and business can thrive together.”
The report also highlights how Ohio’s constitutional restrictions—which require keeping Columbus, Cleveland, and Cincinnati whole—limit extreme gerrymanders, while also underscoring the need for independent commissions, like those in Michigan and Arizona, that have delivered fairer, more competitive maps.
About the Electoral Innovation Lab
The Electoral Innovation Lab, led by Princeton University’s Dr. Sam Wang, is a nonpartisan research group based in Princeton, New Jersey that uses data science and statistical modeling to analyze and inform electoral reforms.
About the Leadership Now Project
Leadership Now Project is a membership organization of business leaders committed to protecting democracy as a foundation for a thriving economy and political stability. Leadership Now Project takes action—investing in leaders, influencing policy, responding to risks, and partnering to drive solutions. Leadership Now's membership is national, with members in 25+ states and chapters in eight, drawing on extensive business and alumni networks to drive local and national impact. Over the past three years, Leadership Now has been Ohio’s business voice for redistricting reform and to repair and strengthen democracy.